2010年12月9日星期四
GLOBAL WIND DEVELOPMENT: A VAST UNTAPPED POTENTIAL
Already now, wind is the fastest growing energy source in the world with an average annual growth rate of more than 26 % since 1990. The world’s wind energy generating capacity at the close of 2005 stood at over 59 gigawatts (GW). However, the global potential for wind energy remains largely untapped. Historically, the market has mainly been driven by fi ve countries: Germany, Spain, United States, India and Denmark. If other countries were to match the efforts of these forerunners, the impact for the industry would be far-reaching. It is likely that the next twenty years will see a broadening of the global wind turbines market and involve new countries across all continents. Several countries outside of Europe and the US are now taking the fi rst steps to develop large-scale commercial wind markets. Policy targets for renewable energy now exist in at least 45 countries worldwide, including 10 developing countries. China alone has recently set its target at 30 GW from wind power from 2020, but the potential is estimated to be much higher. The IEA predicts wind energy to be the second largest source of renewable electricity by 2030 after large hydro. In its “Wind Force 12” forecasts, GWEC estimates that the wind industry is capable of becoming a dynamic and innovative 80 billion euro (67 billion USD) annual business by 2020. Wind power installed worldwide could be increased from 59 GW in 2005 to 1,000 GW by 2020 and could supply 12 % of the electricity worldwide. The growth potential for wind energy in new markets is thus enormous. However, this impressive growth can only be sustained and expanded if energy policies are further implemented and adopted in more countries. As with any other energy source, the wind power market is largely driven by policy and markets only exist where policy support is enacted.
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